Cheltenham Festival Betting Views: Johnny Ward highlights a 33-1 ante-post pick

Niall Tierney speaks to journalist and broadcaster Johnny Ward to find out more about his betting strategies for the Cheltenham Festival.

1. When it comes to Cheltenham, how often would you commit to ante-post betting, and what factors play in your mind to accept the extra risk involved?

I’ve had very good luck with it, particularly the year of Samcro and Laurina, but I’ve just found it much, much harder as the years have gone on placing bets.

I’ve become a bit frustrated with punting because of how difficult it is to get on. I’ve sort of lost the initiative a little bit. You can still definitely get value, and to be fair, with Cheltenham - ante-post betting is much, much less than it was.

So I don’t bet that much ante-post now. I think I won one ante-post bet for Cheltenham last year - it was 33/1 and went off about 7/2 on the day, it finished unplaced - so that obviously didn’t work out, but it was a good bet. I haven’t really found that this year.

I am a bit annoyed at myself for not backing Anzadam as I was thinking he was value each-way. If I were to have a bet now, I think the Willie Mullins horse who won yesterday Leader D'allier - he was second at Leopardstown at Christmas is around 33 -1 for the Supreme and could be a bit of value.

There is still value out there, I just don’t come into it as much as I probably should.

2. How much weight do you give to trainers targeting one Cheltenham race all season against horses that arrive there with a few runs and are more in form - for example, Teahupoo usually running once the last couple of years, compared to horses that have three or four runs pre-Festival?

I think that’s important, but in terms of trainers targeting one Cheltenham race, it’s almost more about the owner, particularly owners whose horses might be laid out for Cheltenham.

But yeah, I mean, the likes of Teahupoo - that wouldn’t worry me at all. I don’t think it’s a big factor when they all want to peak for Cheltenham. I think the horses are trained to their own profile anyway.

Everyone pretty much targets Cheltenham, so you just have to make up your mind closer to the day in terms of the odds on offer.

3. Do you ever factor in owners or sponsorship connections when you’re assessing the potential intended target for a race, especially big owners who only want winners at the Festival?

Yeah, absolutely. I do feel a lot of JP McManus horses basically have one Festival in mind all year, particularly. That’s definitely something I’d factor in.

4. How important is watching races back when selecting potential picks? Do you feel things happen in races that are sometimes useful to your study that others may not have picked up on?

Absolutely vital. You can’t cut corners with this stuff - if you do, you deserve not to be winning money.

5. When you have two horses that you believe fit the profile of a race but you can’t decide between them, what steps do you take to come to your decision? Do you dig deeper into the form, or do you lean more towards which horse might have more potential to improve?

Quite simply, you back both.