All to Play for in Second Half of the National Hunt Season As we fast approach the business end of the current jumps season it is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing for many a year. The predictability we have become accustomed to by the dominance of the all-conquering Willie Mullins stable is missing and it feels good. It would be foolish to expect anything other than normal service to resume at the Dublin Racing Festival and on through to the end of the campaign, but there is at least a chink of light for the rest this time around. Gordon Elliott's resurgence is certainly helping to change the narrative, as are recent big race victories for Noel Meade, Joseph O'Brien and Declan Queally, but the British trainers are also doing their bit to make it appear as if Mullins won't get things all his own way come Cheltenham. In recent years, by this stage of the season, Mullins trained horses have dominated the ante post markets for Cheltenham, but at the moment he only has half a dozen of the favourites and several of those - Bambino Fever, Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs - are yet to taste victory this season. Renewed Interest in Racing and Betting The air of unpredictability at the moment is helping to stimulate renewed interest in the racing and also the betting which has to be a good thing. The bookmakers have been caught somewhat on the back foot with several season-long markets, most notably the 20/1 Paddy Power went a couple of months ago about Jack Kennedy being crowned Champion Jockey in Ireland this season. He is now 4/7 to regain the title he first won in 2024. Following the Christmas action the same firm priced up Willie Mullins at 1/8 to retain his Irish Trainers Title and 9/2 about pacesetter Gordon Elliott. Despite no meaningful change in the interim they have shifted their odds to 1/4 and 11/4 respectively, which suggests the outcome is not quite the foregone conclusion the bookies may have initially thought it was. With a sizable lead of over €800,000 in prize money won, Gordon Elliott must have a real shot at landing his first Irish Trainers' Championship this season. The Battle for the Irish Trainers' Championship It will be most interesting to see how much of that advantage remains intact after the Dublin Racing Festival, but it does look most likely at this stage that Elliott will lead Mullins into the final week of the season at Punchestown. The big question is, how far in front of Willie Mullins will Gordon Elliott need to be at the beginning of Punchestown to hang on? In 2018 Elliott was €521,000 ahead entering the final week of the season, but that lead had evaporated after just two days of action at Punchestown as Mullins went on to lift his 12th Irish Trainer's Title. Eight seasons later and Willie Mullins is eyeing up victory number 20, while Gordon Elliott's wait to add his name to the trophy goes on. Article highlights: Willie Mullins' dominance in the jumps season is being challenged, with Gordon Elliott leading the Irish Trainers' Championship by over €800,000 Bookmakers have adjusted their odds, suggesting the championship outcome isn't as certain as initially thought The Gold Cup market appears to be overvaluing the King George VI Chase results, with Galopin Des Champs potentially offering value at 6/1 Betting Opportunities for Cheltenham These days ante post betting on horse racing is barely a shadow of its former self, but I'm sure I'm not alone in getting tempted by some of the odds offered for Cheltenham in recent weeks. The Gold Cup market in particular looks wrong to me with the bookmakers appearing to place too much emphasis on the thrilling finish of the King George VI Chase at Kempton last month. Three of the first four horses home in that blanket finish are now vying for favouritism for the Gold Cup. Recent history tells us that the Savills Chase at Leopardstown is a far more reliable guide to the Gold Cup than the King George and I think that the value in the market for the Cheltenham showpiece lies somewhere amongst the horses from the Leopardstown race. Galopin Des Champs in particular looks over-priced to regain his Gold Cup crown at Cheltenham. His seasonal debut in the Savills Chase was full of promise and if he builds on that effort to land the Irish Gold Cup for the fourth consecutive year at Leopardstown at the end of the month his current best odds of 6/1 for Cheltenham will look very generous. Horses to Watch I also think Galopin Des Champs' stablemate I Am Maximus is a tempting each-way price for the Gold Cup at around 33/1, but it would be prudent to wait for the bookies to go non-runner no bet on the race before chancing him as he is far from certain to line up. The Supreme Novices Hurdle market is another that looks enticing with no clear favourite. El Cairos currently tops the betting at 9/2 and there can be little doubt that he is a very exciting prospect. His freak fall at Leopardstown at Christmas is slightly off-putting from a betting standpoint, you'd like to see him race again before parting with money, but it seems as if the bookies and punters are all waiting for Willie Mullins to unveil a strong contender at the Dublin Racing Festival. If that doesn't materialise El Cairos must surely tumble in price. Overall Willie Mullins' dip in form is most certainly only temporary, but has nonetheless helped to breathe new life into the national hunt season and I'm more excited than normal to see how the rest of the season unfolds. Rescheduling Weather-Affected Meetings Changing the subject, Horse Racing Ireland and the racecourses deserve credit for their prompt rescheduling of the weekend fixtures that have recently fallen foul of the weather. Running these meetings a few days later is good for almost everyone. Everyone that is except perhaps the sponsors. The likes of Ballymore, who will have stumped up a significant sum of money to sponsor the Grade One Novices Hurdle at Naas on the first Sunday of the New Year, may well feel a little cheated to have their race take place on the following Friday. Besides the lack of atmosphere and publicity often associated with these rearranged fixtures, I would imagine that many of the guests invited by the sponsors on the Sunday may have been unable to attend on the Friday, which takes some of the shine off their big day. I suppose that is the risk sponsors take when getting involved with National Hunt racing in the winter months.
